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rejectedregime_dependent· equity· composite· cross-sectional· multi-factor

Multi-Factor Composite (JP All Stocks)

slug: multi-factor-jp-all
performance summary
Sharpe (median)
-0.25
Max DD
-28.0%
Win rate
Alpha (ann.)
p-value
0.52
backtest period: 2022-02-012026-02-02
Sharpe across 120 grid runs:median -0.25best 0.41 (not representative)worst -1.29p25–p75 -0.56-0.03

Hypothesis

Combines signals from marginal/promising single factors into a z-scored composite. Testing on the full Japanese stock universe.

Why it didn't work

Across 120 grid combinations, median Sharpe=-0.25, best=0.41. Primary failure mode: regime_dependent.

Facts (5)

Best grid Sharpe ratio is 0.41 (p=0.41).
period 2022-02-01–2026-02-02; cost=5bps
sharpe_ratio0.41
Median Sharpe across 120 grid runs is -0.25.
Full grid of 120 parameter combinations.
sharpe_ratio-0.25
Median Sharpe in DOWN regime is -3.71 across 120 runs.
Regime=DOWN, N225 SMA20/SMA60 classification.
sharpe_ratio-3.71
Median Sharpe in FLAT regime is 0.07 across 120 runs.
Regime=FLAT, N225 SMA20/SMA60 classification.
sharpe_ratio0.07
Median Sharpe in UP regime is -0.85 across 120 runs.
Regime=UP, N225 SMA20/SMA60 classification.
sharpe_ratio-0.85

Runs (30)

runparamssharpeUPFLATDOWN
n_factors=2, holding_days=1, n_stocks=5, cost_bps=5, regime_gate=False
r-multi-factor-jp-all-0000
cost_bps: 5
n_stocks: 5
n_factors: 2
-0.85-1.71-0.49-4.14
n_factors=2, holding_days=1, n_stocks=5, cost_bps=5, regime_gate=True
r-multi-factor-jp-all-0001
cost_bps: 5
n_stocks: 5
n_factors: 2
-0.78-1.76-0.49-4.14
n_factors=2, holding_days=1, n_stocks=5, cost_bps=10, regime_gate=False
r-multi-factor-jp-all-0002
cost_bps: 10
n_stocks: 5
n_factors: 2
-1.07-1.91-0.70-4.57
n_factors=2, holding_days=1, n_stocks=5, cost_bps=10, regime_gate=True
r-multi-factor-jp-all-0003
cost_bps: 10
n_stocks: 5
n_factors: 2
-0.99-1.92-0.70-4.57
n_factors=2, holding_days=1, n_stocks=10, cost_bps=5, regime_gate=False
r-multi-factor-jp-all-0004
cost_bps: 5
n_stocks: 10
n_factors: 2
-0.87-2.47-0.13-6.65
n_factors=2, holding_days=5, n_stocks=5, cost_bps=5, regime_gate=True
r-multi-factor-jp-all-0017
cost_bps: 5
n_stocks: 5
n_factors: 2
-0.02+0.26+0.17-6.81
n_factors=2, holding_days=5, n_stocks=10, cost_bps=10, regime_gate=False
r-multi-factor-jp-all-0022
cost_bps: 10
n_stocks: 10
n_factors: 2
-0.86-2.05-0.20-6.67
n_factors=2, holding_days=10, n_stocks=5, cost_bps=10, regime_gate=True
r-multi-factor-jp-all-0035
cost_bps: 10
n_stocks: 5
n_factors: 2
-0.21+0.44+0.00-5.38
n_factors=2, holding_days=20, n_stocks=5, cost_bps=5, regime_gate=False
r-multi-factor-jp-all-0048
cost_bps: 5
n_stocks: 5
n_factors: 2
-0.24-2.13+0.39-4.71
n_factors=2, holding_days=20, n_stocks=10, cost_bps=5, regime_gate=True
r-multi-factor-jp-all-0053
cost_bps: 5
n_stocks: 10
n_factors: 2
-0.14-0.19+0.09-3.65
n_factors=2, holding_days=60, n_stocks=5, cost_bps=5, regime_gate=False
r-multi-factor-jp-all-0064
cost_bps: 5
n_stocks: 5
n_factors: 2
-0.19-0.70+0.08-1.85
n_factors=2, holding_days=60, n_stocks=5, cost_bps=10, regime_gate=True
r-multi-factor-jp-all-0067
cost_bps: 10
n_stocks: 5
n_factors: 2
-0.03+0.05+0.06-1.89
n_factors=3, holding_days=1, n_stocks=5, cost_bps=5, regime_gate=False
r-multi-factor-jp-all-0080
cost_bps: 5
n_stocks: 5
n_factors: 3
-0.53-1.85-0.11+0.52
n_factors=3, holding_days=1, n_stocks=10, cost_bps=5, regime_gate=True
r-multi-factor-jp-all-0085
cost_bps: 5
n_stocks: 10
n_factors: 3
-0.42-1.48-0.08-3.04
n_factors=3, holding_days=5, n_stocks=5, cost_bps=10, regime_gate=False
r-multi-factor-jp-all-0098
cost_bps: 10
n_stocks: 5
n_factors: 3
-0.50-1.58+0.08-0.88
n_factors=3, holding_days=5, n_stocks=10, cost_bps=10, regime_gate=True
r-multi-factor-jp-all-0103
cost_bps: 10
n_stocks: 10
n_factors: 3
+0.05+0.37+0.17-6.80
n_factors=3, holding_days=10, n_stocks=10, cost_bps=5, regime_gate=False
r-multi-factor-jp-all-0116
cost_bps: 5
n_stocks: 10
n_factors: 3
-0.15-0.88+0.37-4.42
n_factors=3, holding_days=20, n_stocks=5, cost_bps=5, regime_gate=True
r-multi-factor-jp-all-0129
cost_bps: 5
n_stocks: 5
n_factors: 3
+0.41+0.76+0.57-5.59
n_factors=3, holding_days=20, n_stocks=5, cost_bps=10, regime_gate=False
r-multi-factor-jp-all-0130
cost_bps: 10
n_stocks: 5
n_factors: 3
+0.02-0.79+0.51-5.72
n_factors=3, holding_days=20, n_stocks=10, cost_bps=10, regime_gate=True
r-multi-factor-jp-all-0135
cost_bps: 10
n_stocks: 10
n_factors: 3
+0.01+0.25+0.17-2.59
n_factors=3, holding_days=60, n_stocks=10, cost_bps=5, regime_gate=False
r-multi-factor-jp-all-0148
cost_bps: 5
n_stocks: 10
n_factors: 3
-0.16-0.06-0.02-5.83
n_factors=4, holding_days=1, n_stocks=5, cost_bps=5, regime_gate=False
r-multi-factor-jp-all-0160
cost_bps: 5
n_stocks: 5
n_factors: 4
-0.72-2.44-0.14-0.52
n_factors=4, holding_days=1, n_stocks=5, cost_bps=10, regime_gate=False
r-multi-factor-jp-all-0162
cost_bps: 10
n_stocks: 5
n_factors: 4
-0.94-2.62-0.39-0.74
n_factors=4, holding_days=1, n_stocks=10, cost_bps=10, regime_gate=False
r-multi-factor-jp-all-0166
cost_bps: 10
n_stocks: 10
n_factors: 4
-1.29-2.87-0.80-3.08
n_factors=4, holding_days=5, n_stocks=5, cost_bps=5, regime_gate=False
r-multi-factor-jp-all-0176
cost_bps: 5
n_stocks: 5
n_factors: 4
-0.50-1.86+0.24-1.28
n_factors=4, holding_days=5, n_stocks=10, cost_bps=5, regime_gate=True
r-multi-factor-jp-all-0181
cost_bps: 5
n_stocks: 10
n_factors: 4
-0.13+0.48-0.08-5.26
n_factors=4, holding_days=10, n_stocks=5, cost_bps=10, regime_gate=False
r-multi-factor-jp-all-0194
cost_bps: 10
n_stocks: 5
n_factors: 4
-0.78-1.79-0.23-4.59
n_factors=4, holding_days=10, n_stocks=10, cost_bps=10, regime_gate=True
r-multi-factor-jp-all-0199
cost_bps: 10
n_stocks: 10
n_factors: 4
-0.26+0.47-0.21-2.93
n_factors=4, holding_days=20, n_stocks=10, cost_bps=5, regime_gate=False
r-multi-factor-jp-all-0212
cost_bps: 5
n_stocks: 10
n_factors: 4
-0.12-1.43+0.41-2.16
n_factors=4, holding_days=60, n_stocks=5, cost_bps=5, regime_gate=True
r-multi-factor-jp-all-0225
cost_bps: 5
n_stocks: 5
n_factors: 4
-0.24-0.54-0.06-1.13

Target universe

Tokyo Stock Exchange all listed (Prime/Standard/Growth), ~3747 stocks

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source: qbuntu-analysis · kabu STATION REST API + J-Quants daily bars
computed asof: 2026-07-29T01:08:35

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