エムティーアイ (9438.T) quant model fit
Median hit rate and return when a model selected エムティーアイ (9438.T). Model: ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth. Model–stock fit, not a buy signal.
Median LONG hit rate is 0.56 (n=12). above a coin flip.Median LONG return is +27.4 bps.Above a coin flip is still not a buy signal.
Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.
Accuracy (median across grid)
| metric | median | p25 – p75 | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rate · LONG | 0.5624 | 0.4107 – 0.6644 | 12 |
| Hit rate · SHORT | 0 | 0 – 0 | 11 |
| Avg return · LONG (bps) | 27.4 | -47.9 – 85.1 | 12 |
| Avg return · SHORT (bps) | -424.3 | -490.8 – -10 | 11 |
| Selection rate · LONG | 0.0011 | 0.0006 – 0.0025 | 12 |
| Selection rate · SHORT | 0.0003 | 0.0001 – 0.0006 | 12 |
Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps per trade (1 bps = 0.01%). Metrics with n = 0 are omitted.
PnL contribution
Selected LONG 814 / SHORT 182 times out of 490,752 appearances (0.166% LONG).
sum of per-trade decimal returns across all grid combos and retrain periods (0.01 = one trade returning 1%)