per-stock model-accuracy decomposition

8518.T

computed asof 2026-08-07T09:15:52

read this first — not a buy signal

Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.

Decomposes ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth. Standalone walk-forward run of the same LightGBM 9-factor family on the jp-listed universe (~4,100 tickers); the referenced record's verdict applies to the jp-growth universe only.

Accuracy (median across grid)

metric	median	p25 – p75	n
Hit rate · LONG	0.4590	0.4094 – 0.4903	12
Hit rate · SHORT	0.8357	0.5933 – 0.9195	12
Avg return · LONG (bps)	-99.8	-111.5 – -62.1	12
Avg return · SHORT (bps)	147.1	70.1 – 404.3	12
Selection rate · LONG	0.0122	0.0082 – 0.0156	12
Selection rate · SHORT	0.0026	0.0018 – 0.0037	12

Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps per trade (1 bps = 0.01%).

PnL contribution

long

-24.2

short

7.6634

total

-16.6

appearances 235008 · LONG 2786 · SHORT 679

Research, not investment advice. Metrics describe model–stock fit, not the stock's merit.