per-stock model-accuracy decomposition

7815.T

computed asof 2026-08-07T09:15:52

read this first — not a buy signal

Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.

Decomposes ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth. Standalone walk-forward run of the same LightGBM 9-factor family on the jp-listed universe (~4,100 tickers); the referenced record's verdict applies to the jp-growth universe only.

Accuracy (median across grid)

metric	median	p25 – p75	n
Hit rate · LONG	0.4227	0.3339 – 0.5486	12
Hit rate · SHORT	0.7368	0.7011 – 0.8027	12
Avg return · LONG (bps)	-32.1	-216.2 – 131.7	12
Avg return · SHORT (bps)	727.0	646.9 – 770.3	12
Selection rate · LONG	0.0368	0.0241 – 0.0429	12
Selection rate · SHORT	0.0428	0.0377 – 0.0521	12

Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps per trade (1 bps = 0.01%).

PnL contribution

long

-4.4972

short

147.8

total

143.3

appearances 46848 · LONG 1706 · SHORT 2058

Research, not investment advice. Metrics describe model–stock fit, not the stock's merit.