per-stock model-accuracy decomposition

7527.T

computed asof 2026-08-07T09:15:52

read this first — not a buy signal

Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.

Decomposes ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth. Standalone walk-forward run of the same LightGBM 9-factor family on the jp-listed universe (~4,100 tickers); the referenced record's verdict applies to the jp-growth universe only.

Accuracy (median across grid)

metric	median	p25 – p75	n
Hit rate · LONG	0.2478	0.1795 – 0.3212	12
Hit rate · SHORT	0.6881	0.6658 – 0.7221	12
Avg return · LONG (bps)	-63.0	-145.8 – -2.6350	12
Avg return · SHORT (bps)	286.6	71.6 – 359.4	12
Selection rate · LONG	0.0051	0.0042 – 0.0058	12
Selection rate · SHORT	0.0084	0.0073 – 0.0098	12

Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps per trade (1 bps = 0.01%).

PnL contribution

long

-23.3

short

98.4

total

75.1

appearances 548352 · LONG 2696 · SHORT 4584

Research, not investment advice. Metrics describe model–stock fit, not the stock's merit.