ティラド (7236.T) quant model fit
Median hit rate and return when a model selected ティラド (7236.T). Model: ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth. Model–stock fit, not a buy signal.
Median LONG hit rate is 0.65 (n=12). above a coin flip.Median LONG return is +10.4 bps.Above a coin flip is still not a buy signal.
Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.
Accuracy (median across grid)
| metric | median | p25 – p75 | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rate · LONG | 0.6450 | 0.5579 – 0.7184 | 12 |
| Hit rate · SHORT | 0.7546 | 0.6291 – 1 | 12 |
| Avg return · LONG (bps) | 10.4 | -2.7988 – 20.9 | 12 |
| Avg return · SHORT (bps) | 86.7 | 69.5 – 155.4 | 12 |
| Selection rate · LONG | 0.0036 | 0.0030 – 0.0046 | 12 |
| Selection rate · SHORT | 0.0013 | 0.0012 – 0.0015 | 12 |
Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps per trade (1 bps = 0.01%). Metrics with n = 0 are omitted.
PnL contribution
Selected LONG 3331 / SHORT 1100 times out of 820,992 appearances (0.406% LONG).
sum of per-trade decimal returns across all grid combos and retrain periods (0.01 = one trade returning 1%)