per-stock model-accuracy decomposition

6696.T

computed asof 2026-08-07T09:15:52

read this first — not a buy signal

Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.

Decomposes ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth. Standalone walk-forward run of the same LightGBM 9-factor family on the jp-listed universe (~4,100 tickers); the referenced record's verdict applies to the jp-growth universe only.

Accuracy (median across grid)

metric	median	p25 – p75	n
Hit rate · LONG	0.3657	0.3317 – 0.4157	12
Hit rate · SHORT	0.6291	0.5850 – 0.6637	12
Avg return · LONG (bps)	-88.1	-181.3 – -48.5	12
Avg return · SHORT (bps)	236.3	157.6 – 273.4	12
Selection rate · LONG	0.0224	0.0212 – 0.0242	12
Selection rate · SHORT	0.0297	0.0284 – 0.0308	12

Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps per trade (1 bps = 0.01%).

PnL contribution

long

-152.4

short

331.5

total

179.1

appearances 587520 · LONG 13448 · SHORT 17200

Research, not investment advice. Metrics describe model–stock fit, not the stock's merit.