per-stock model-accuracy decomposition

6378.T

computed asof 2026-08-07T09:15:52

read this first — not a buy signal

Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.

Decomposes ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth. Standalone walk-forward run of the same LightGBM 9-factor family on the jp-listed universe (~4,100 tickers); the referenced record's verdict applies to the jp-growth universe only.

Accuracy (median across grid)

metric	median	p25 – p75	n
Hit rate · LONG	0.4218	0.3069 – 0.4921	12
Hit rate · SHORT	0.5000	0.1208 – 0.7797	11
Avg return · LONG (bps)	12.6	-158.0 – 75.7	12
Avg return · SHORT (bps)	83.3	-86.3 – 136.2	11
Selection rate · LONG	0.0008	0.0005 – 0.0011	12
Selection rate · SHORT	0.0002	0.0001 – 0.0003	12

Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps per trade (1 bps = 0.01%).

PnL contribution

long

-0.5038

short

0.2910

total

-0.2129

appearances 705024 · LONG 566 · SHORT 144

Research, not investment advice. Metrics describe model–stock fit, not the stock's merit.