per-stock model-accuracy decomposition

6226.T

computed asof 2026-08-07T09:15:52

read this first — not a buy signal

Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.

Decomposes ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth. Standalone walk-forward run of the same LightGBM 9-factor family on the jp-listed universe (~4,100 tickers); the referenced record's verdict applies to the jp-growth universe only.

Accuracy (median across grid)

metric	median	p25 – p75	n
Hit rate · LONG	0.4793	0.2846 – 0.5820	12
Hit rate · SHORT	0.8745	0.8527 – 0.9295	12
Avg return · LONG (bps)	-95.4	-152.5 – -29.9	12
Avg return · SHORT (bps)	44.4	13.1 – 51.1	12
Selection rate · LONG	0.0020	0.0015 – 0.0027	12
Selection rate · SHORT	0.0011	0.0010 – 0.0015	12

Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps per trade (1 bps = 0.01%).

PnL contribution

long

-11.6

short

2.8699

total

-8.7777

appearances 689088 · LONG 1459 · SHORT 866

Research, not investment advice. Metrics describe model–stock fit, not the stock's merit.