per-stock model-accuracy decomposition

5698.T

computed asof 2026-08-07T09:15:52

read this first — not a buy signal

Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.

Decomposes ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth. Standalone walk-forward run of the same LightGBM 9-factor family on the jp-listed universe (~4,100 tickers); the referenced record's verdict applies to the jp-growth universe only.

Accuracy (median across grid)

metric	median	p25 – p75	n
Hit rate · LONG	0.5281	0.4619 – 0.6545	12
Hit rate · SHORT	0.7741	0.4401 – 0.9631	12
Avg return · LONG (bps)	-87.2	-154.7 – -5.3959	12
Avg return · SHORT (bps)	219.4	-278.6 – 333.6	12
Selection rate · LONG	0.0024	0.0019 – 0.0029	12
Selection rate · SHORT	0.0020	0.0014 – 0.0021	12

Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps per trade (1 bps = 0.01%).

PnL contribution

long

-14.8

short

3.9849

total

-10.8

appearances 698112 · LONG 1763 · SHORT 1298

Research, not investment advice. Metrics describe model–stock fit, not the stock's merit.