per-stock model-accuracy decomposition

5580.T

computed asof 2026-08-07T09:15:52

read this first — not a buy signal

Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.

Decomposes ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth. Standalone walk-forward run of the same LightGBM 9-factor family on the jp-listed universe (~4,100 tickers); the referenced record's verdict applies to the jp-growth universe only.

Accuracy (median across grid)

metric	median	p25 – p75	n
Hit rate · LONG	0.5638	0.3651 – 0.6073	12
Hit rate · SHORT	0.9267	0.8761 – 0.9435	12
Avg return · LONG (bps)	-18.5	-164.7 – -4.4249	12
Avg return · SHORT (bps)	1254.0	984.8 – 1301.4	12
Selection rate · LONG	0.0083	0.0070 – 0.0118	12
Selection rate · SHORT	0.0270	0.0235 – 0.0288	12

Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps per trade (1 bps = 0.01%).

PnL contribution

long

-10.4

short

352.0

total

341.6

appearances 116928 · LONG 1128 · SHORT 3075

Research, not investment advice. Metrics describe model–stock fit, not the stock's merit.