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I-ne (4933.T) quant model fit

4933.T·素材・化学·jp-listed
computed asof 2026-10-01T02:33:09

Median hit rate and return when a model selected I-ne (4933.T). Model: ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth. Model–stock fit, not a buy signal.

Median LONG hit rate is 0.70 (n=12). above a coin flip.Median LONG return is +193.0 bps.Above a coin flip is still not a buy signal.

read this first — not a buy signal

Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.

Decomposes ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth — strategy verdict: marginal. Standalone walk-forward run of the same LightGBM 9-factor family on the jp-listed universe (~4,100 tickers); the referenced record's verdict applies to the jp-growth universe only.

Accuracy (median across grid)

metricmedianp25 – p75n
Hit rate · LONG0.70490.5731 – 0.740212
Hit rate · SHORT0.36970.2372 – 0.441812
Avg return · LONG (bps)193.0159.2 – 254.712
Avg return · SHORT (bps)-312.5-400.6 – -101.012
Selection rate · LONG0.00260.0021 – 0.003112
Selection rate · SHORT0.00280.0022 – 0.003612

Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps per trade (1 bps = 0.01%). Metrics with n = 0 are omitted.

PnL contribution

long
45.8
short
-72.9
total
-27.1

Selected LONG 2285 / SHORT 2400 times out of 871,680 appearances (0.262% LONG).

sum of per-trade decimal returns across all grid combos and retrain periods (0.01 = one trade returning 1%)

/ai/stocks/4933.T.md/v1/stocks/4933.T
Research, not investment advice. Metrics describe model–stock fit, not the stock's merit.