per-stock model-accuracy decomposition

4881.T

computed asof 2026-08-07T09:15:52

read this first — not a buy signal

Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.

Decomposes ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth. Standalone walk-forward run of the same LightGBM 9-factor family on the jp-listed universe (~4,100 tickers); the referenced record's verdict applies to the jp-growth universe only.

Accuracy (median across grid)

metric	median	p25 – p75	n
Hit rate · LONG	0.3787	0.3355 – 0.3920	12
Hit rate · SHORT	0.7591	0.7091 – 0.8027	12
Avg return · LONG (bps)	-78.0	-112.1 – -39.4	12
Avg return · SHORT (bps)	452.0	419.7 – 488.7	12
Selection rate · LONG	0.0096	0.0083 – 0.0101	12
Selection rate · SHORT	0.0084	0.0079 – 0.0091	12

Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps per trade (1 bps = 0.01%).

PnL contribution

long

-33.1

short

207.1

total

174.1

appearances 526080 · LONG 4862 · SHORT 4476

Research, not investment advice. Metrics describe model–stock fit, not the stock's merit.