per-stock model-accuracy decomposition

4563.T

computed asof 2026-08-07T09:15:52

read this first — not a buy signal

Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.

Decomposes ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth. Standalone walk-forward run of the same LightGBM 9-factor family on the jp-listed universe (~4,100 tickers); the referenced record's verdict applies to the jp-growth universe only.

Accuracy (median across grid)

metric	median	p25 – p75	n
Hit rate · LONG	0.3647	0.3362 – 0.4012	12
Hit rate · SHORT	0.6888	0.6450 – 0.7857	12
Avg return · LONG (bps)	49.8	-6.5145 – 92.7	12
Avg return · SHORT (bps)	536.8	435.0 – 594.2	12
Selection rate · LONG	0.0096	0.0089 – 0.0109	12
Selection rate · SHORT	0.0046	0.0039 – 0.0051	12

Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps per trade (1 bps = 0.01%).

PnL contribution

long

26.5

short

189.3

total

215.8

appearances 816384 · LONG 7891 · SHORT 3793

Research, not investment advice. Metrics describe model–stock fit, not the stock's merit.