日本新薬 (4516.T) quant model fit
Median hit rate and return when a model selected 日本新薬 (4516.T). Model: ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth. Model–stock fit, not a buy signal.
Median LONG hit rate is 0.29 (n=12). below a coin flip.Median LONG return is -178.6 bps.
Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.
Accuracy (median across grid)
| metric | median | p25 – p75 | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rate · LONG | 0.2942 | 0.2161 – 0.3409 | 12 |
| Hit rate · SHORTthin n | 0 | 0 – 0.2500 | 3 |
| Avg return · LONG (bps) | -178.6 | -247.7 – -153.1 | 12 |
| Avg return · SHORT (bps)thin n | -370.2 | -370.2 – -159.9 | 3 |
| Selection rate · LONG | 0.0015 | 0.0012 – 0.0022 | 12 |
| Selection rate · SHORT | 0 | 0 – 0 | 12 |
Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps per trade (1 bps = 0.01%). Metrics with n = 0 are omitted. Rows marked thin n have fewer than 5 observations — do not over-read them.
PnL contribution
Selected LONG 1531 / SHORT 22 times out of 871,680 appearances (0.176% LONG).
sum of per-trade decimal returns across all grid combos and retrain periods (0.01 = one trade returning 1%)