per-stock model-accuracy decomposition

4464.T

computed asof 2026-08-07T09:15:52

read this first — not a buy signal

Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.

Decomposes ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth. Standalone walk-forward run of the same LightGBM 9-factor family on the jp-listed universe (~4,100 tickers); the referenced record's verdict applies to the jp-growth universe only.

Accuracy (median across grid)

metric	median	p25 – p75	n
Hit rate · LONG	0.6291	0.5116 – 0.6861	12
Hit rate · SHORT	0.1998	0.1201 – 0.2662	12
Avg return · LONG (bps)	387.3	287.5 – 456.1	12
Avg return · SHORT (bps)	97.9	24.0 – 142.8	12
Selection rate · LONG	0.0177	0.0118 – 0.0208	12
Selection rate · SHORT	0.0126	0.0090 – 0.0158	12

Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps per trade (1 bps = 0.01%).

PnL contribution

long

83.2

short

16.8

total

100.0

appearances 125184 · LONG 2148 · SHORT 1519

Research, not investment advice. Metrics describe model–stock fit, not the stock's merit.