per-stock model-accuracy decomposition

4441.T

computed asof 2026-08-07T09:15:52

read this first — not a buy signal

Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.

Decomposes ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth. Standalone walk-forward run of the same LightGBM 9-factor family on the jp-listed universe (~4,100 tickers); the referenced record's verdict applies to the jp-growth universe only.

Accuracy (median across grid)

metric	median	p25 – p75	n
Hit rate · LONG	0.5557	0.3732 – 0.5985	12
Hit rate · SHORT	1	0.8679 – 1	10
Avg return · LONG (bps)	8.2386	-8.4816 – 48.8	12
Avg return · SHORT (bps)	448.7	299.5 – 778.5	10
Selection rate · LONG	0.0021	0.0016 – 0.0029	12
Selection rate · SHORT	0.0001	0 – 0.0002	12

Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps per trade (1 bps = 0.01%).

PnL contribution

long

1.5208

short

2.3592

total

3.8800

appearances 403968 · LONG 924 · SHORT 53

Research, not investment advice. Metrics describe model–stock fit, not the stock's merit.