per-stock model-accuracy decomposition

4316.T

computed asof 2026-08-07T09:15:52

read this first — not a buy signal

Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.

Decomposes ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth. Standalone walk-forward run of the same LightGBM 9-factor family on the jp-listed universe (~4,100 tickers); the referenced record's verdict applies to the jp-growth universe only.

Accuracy (median across grid)

metric	median	p25 – p75	n
Hit rate · LONG	0.3330	0.3004 – 0.3616	12
Hit rate · SHORT	0.6940	0.6768 – 0.7205	12
Avg return · LONG (bps)	-27.6	-59.4 – 3.9053	12
Avg return · SHORT (bps)	121.0	39.7 – 159.6	12
Selection rate · LONG	0.0327	0.0291 – 0.0368	12
Selection rate · SHORT	0.0403	0.0381 – 0.0434	12

Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps per trade (1 bps = 0.01%).

PnL contribution

long

-20.1

short

151.5

total

131.4

appearances 379392 · LONG 12486 · SHORT 15576

Research, not investment advice. Metrics describe model–stock fit, not the stock's merit.