per-stock model-accuracy decomposition

4261.T

computed asof 2026-08-07T09:15:52

read this first — not a buy signal

Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.

Decomposes ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth. Standalone walk-forward run of the same LightGBM 9-factor family on the jp-listed universe (~4,100 tickers); the referenced record's verdict applies to the jp-growth universe only.

Accuracy (median across grid)

metric	median	p25 – p75	n
Hit rate · LONG	0.3960	0.3508 – 0.4699	12
Hit rate · SHORT	0.2378	0.1903 – 0.4127	12
Avg return · LONG (bps)	-122.9	-175.5 – 48.1	12
Avg return · SHORT (bps)	164.4	-81.6 – 389.3	12
Selection rate · LONG	0.0167	0.0149 – 0.0172	12
Selection rate · SHORT	0.0063	0.0056 – 0.0078	12

Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps per trade (1 bps = 0.01%).

PnL contribution

long

-35.0

short

39.0

total

3.9665

appearances 291264 · LONG 4606 · SHORT 1882

Research, not investment advice. Metrics describe model–stock fit, not the stock's merit.