per-stock model-accuracy decomposition

4241.T

computed asof 2026-08-07T09:15:52

read this first — not a buy signal

Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.

Decomposes ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth. Standalone walk-forward run of the same LightGBM 9-factor family on the jp-listed universe (~4,100 tickers); the referenced record's verdict applies to the jp-growth universe only.

Accuracy (median across grid)

metric	median	p25 – p75	n
Hit rate · LONG	0.4243	0.3423 – 0.5228	12
Hit rate · SHORT	0.5667	0.5445 – 0.5789	12
Avg return · LONG (bps)	16.0	-116.8 – 61.1	12
Avg return · SHORT (bps)	337.3	180.3 – 397.2	12
Selection rate · LONG	0.0186	0.0174 – 0.0213	12
Selection rate · SHORT	0.0251	0.0220 – 0.0279	12

Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps per trade (1 bps = 0.01%).

PnL contribution

long

2.9733

short

171.8

total

174.8

appearances 202752 · LONG 3787 · SHORT 5195

Research, not investment advice. Metrics describe model–stock fit, not the stock's merit.