積水化成品工業 (4228.T) quant model fit
Median hit rate and return when a model selected 積水化成品工業 (4228.T). Model: ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth. Model–stock fit, not a buy signal.
Median LONG hit rate is 0.20 (n=12). below a coin flip.Median LONG return is -160.5 bps.
Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.
Accuracy (median across grid)
| metric | median | p25 – p75 | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rate · LONG | 0.2000 | 0.1326 – 0.3558 | 12 |
| Hit rate · SHORTthin n | 0 | 0 – 0 | 3 |
| Avg return · LONG (bps) | -160.5 | -294.5 – -99.7 | 12 |
| Avg return · SHORT (bps)thin n | -132.8 | -132.8 – -132.8 | 3 |
| Selection rate · LONG | 0.0002 | 0.0001 – 0.0003 | 12 |
| Selection rate · SHORT | 0 | 0 – 0 | 12 |
Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps per trade (1 bps = 0.01%). Metrics with n = 0 are omitted. Rows marked thin n have fewer than 5 observations — do not over-read them.
PnL contribution
Selected LONG 143 / SHORT 39 times out of 595,968 appearances (0.024% LONG).
sum of per-trade decimal returns across all grid combos and retrain periods (0.01 = one trade returning 1%)