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GMOフィナンシャルゲート (4051.T) quant model fit

4051.T·情報通信・サービスその他·jp-listed
computed asof 2026-10-01T02:33:09

Median hit rate and return when a model selected GMOフィナンシャルゲート (4051.T). Model: ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth. Model–stock fit, not a buy signal.

Median LONG hit rate is 0.52 (n=12). near a coin flip.Median LONG return is -22.6 bps.

read this first — not a buy signal

Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.

Decomposes ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth — strategy verdict: marginal. Standalone walk-forward run of the same LightGBM 9-factor family on the jp-listed universe (~4,100 tickers); the referenced record's verdict applies to the jp-growth universe only.

Accuracy (median across grid)

metricmedianp25 – p75n
Hit rate · LONG0.52220.4865 – 0.608512
Hit rate · SHORT0.33410.2679 – 0.448712
Avg return · LONG (bps)-22.6-65.3 – 15.112
Avg return · SHORT (bps)-28.2-52.1 – 72.112
Selection rate · LONG0.00470.0036 – 0.005412
Selection rate · SHORT0.00130.0009 – 0.001412

Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps per trade (1 bps = 0.01%). Metrics with n = 0 are omitted.

PnL contribution

long
-8.8930
short
0.7049
total
-8.1881

Selected LONG 3933 / SHORT 1050 times out of 871,680 appearances (0.451% LONG).

sum of per-trade decimal returns across all grid combos and retrain periods (0.01 = one trade returning 1%)

/ai/stocks/4051.T.md/v1/stocks/4051.T
Research, not investment advice. Metrics describe model–stock fit, not the stock's merit.