オープンドア (3926.T) quant model fit
Median hit rate and return when a model selected オープンドア (3926.T). Model: ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth. Model–stock fit, not a buy signal.
Median LONG hit rate is 0.49 (n=12). near a coin flip.Median LONG return is +62.9 bps.
Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.
Accuracy (median across grid)
| metric | median | p25 – p75 | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rate · LONG | 0.4896 | 0.4098 – 0.5933 | 12 |
| Hit rate · SHORT | 0.4000 | 0.2424 – 0.5774 | 12 |
| Avg return · LONG (bps) | 62.9 | -24.8 – 121.5 | 12 |
| Avg return · SHORT (bps) | -64.6 | -90.8 – -3.2017 | 12 |
| Selection rate · LONG | 0.0026 | 0.0024 – 0.0039 | 12 |
| Selection rate · SHORT | 0.0006 | 0.0004 – 0.0006 | 12 |
Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps per trade (1 bps = 0.01%). Metrics with n = 0 are omitted.
PnL contribution
Selected LONG 2212 / SHORT 335 times out of 707,328 appearances (0.313% LONG).
sum of per-trade decimal returns across all grid combos and retrain periods (0.01 = one trade returning 1%)