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リップス (373A.T) quant model fit

373A.T·素材・化学·jp-listed
computed asof 2026-10-01T02:33:09

Median hit rate and return when a model selected リップス (373A.T). Model: ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth. Model–stock fit, not a buy signal.

Median LONG hit rate is 0.00 (n=8). below a coin flip.Median LONG return is -211.4 bps.

read this first — not a buy signal

Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.

Decomposes ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth — strategy verdict: marginal. Standalone walk-forward run of the same LightGBM 9-factor family on the jp-listed universe (~4,100 tickers); the referenced record's verdict applies to the jp-growth universe only.

Accuracy (median across grid)

metricmedianp25 – p75n
Hit rate · LONG00 – 0.12508
Hit rate · SHORT11 – 15
Avg return · LONG (bps)-211.4-236.5 – -115.18
Avg return · SHORT (bps)312.9312.9 – 315.45
Selection rate · LONG0.00020 – 0.000812
Selection rate · SHORT00 – 0.000812

Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps per trade (1 bps = 0.01%). Metrics with n = 0 are omitted.

PnL contribution

long
-1.0773
short
2.2631
total
1.1858

Selected LONG 47 / SHORT 72 times out of 87,744 appearances (0.054% LONG).

sum of per-trade decimal returns across all grid combos and retrain periods (0.01 = one trade returning 1%)

/ai/stocks/373A.T.md/v1/stocks/373A.T
Research, not investment advice. Metrics describe model–stock fit, not the stock's merit.