セレス (3696.T) quant model fit
Median hit rate and return when a model selected セレス (3696.T). Model: ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth. Model–stock fit, not a buy signal.
Median LONG hit rate is 0.48 (n=12). near a coin flip.Median LONG return is +6.9 bps.
Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.
Accuracy (median across grid)
| metric | median | p25 – p75 | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rate · LONG | 0.4819 | 0.4116 – 0.5320 | 12 |
| Hit rate · SHORT | 0.7294 | 0.6886 – 0.7732 | 12 |
| Avg return · LONG (bps) | 6.9145 | -68.4 – 45.6 | 12 |
| Avg return · SHORT (bps) | 11.1 | -42.6 – 47.7 | 12 |
| Selection rate · LONG | 0.0036 | 0.0028 – 0.0045 | 12 |
| Selection rate · SHORT | 0.0035 | 0.0030 – 0.0041 | 12 |
Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps per trade (1 bps = 0.01%). Metrics with n = 0 are omitted.
PnL contribution
Selected LONG 3296 / SHORT 3188 times out of 871,680 appearances (0.378% LONG).
sum of per-trade decimal returns across all grid combos and retrain periods (0.01 = one trade returning 1%)