per-stock model-accuracy decomposition

3083.T

computed asof 2026-08-07T09:15:52

read this first — not a buy signal

Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.

Decomposes ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth. Standalone walk-forward run of the same LightGBM 9-factor family on the jp-listed universe (~4,100 tickers); the referenced record's verdict applies to the jp-growth universe only.

Accuracy (median across grid)

metric	median	p25 – p75	n
Hit rate · LONG	0.5962	0.5313 – 0.6322	12
Hit rate · SHORT	0.4577	0.4299 – 0.4954	12
Avg return · LONG (bps)	96.2	1.5614 – 171.5	12
Avg return · SHORT (bps)	114.1	45.1 – 169.4	12
Selection rate · LONG	0.0121	0.0098 – 0.0128	12
Selection rate · SHORT	0.0126	0.0105 – 0.0130	12

Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps per trade (1 bps = 0.01%).

PnL contribution

long

51.7

short

81.9

total

133.5

appearances 589824 · LONG 6803 · SHORT 6781

Research, not investment advice. Metrics describe model–stock fit, not the stock's merit.