qbuntuqbuntu

インフォメティス (281A.T) quant model fit

281A.T·情報通信・サービスその他·jp-listed
computed asof 2026-10-01T02:33:09

Median hit rate and return when a model selected インフォメティス (281A.T). Model: ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth. Model–stock fit, not a buy signal.

Median LONG hit rate is 0.50 (n=12). near a coin flip.Median LONG return is -33.0 bps.

read this first — not a buy signal

Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.

Decomposes ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth — strategy verdict: marginal. Standalone walk-forward run of the same LightGBM 9-factor family on the jp-listed universe (~4,100 tickers); the referenced record's verdict applies to the jp-growth universe only.

Accuracy (median across grid)

metricmedianp25 – p75n
Hit rate · LONG0.49830.4491 – 0.625012
Hit rate · SHORT0.62220.5359 – 0.681112
Avg return · LONG (bps)-33.0-104.3 – 21.812
Avg return · SHORT (bps)51.6-156.5 – 163.012
Selection rate · LONG0.01540.0137 – 0.019112
Selection rate · SHORT0.02850.0267 – 0.032412

Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps per trade (1 bps = 0.01%). Metrics with n = 0 are omitted.

PnL contribution

long
-19.9
short
-4.4367
total
-24.4

Selected LONG 4427 / SHORT 7961 times out of 271,296 appearances (1.632% LONG).

sum of per-trade decimal returns across all grid combos and retrain periods (0.01 = one trade returning 1%)

/ai/stocks/281A.T.md/v1/stocks/281A.T
Research, not investment advice. Metrics describe model–stock fit, not the stock's merit.