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ククレブ・アドバイザーズ (276A.T) quant model fit

276A.T·不動産·jp-listed
computed asof 2026-10-01T02:33:09

Median hit rate and return when a model selected ククレブ・アドバイザーズ (276A.T). Model: ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth. Model–stock fit, not a buy signal.

Median LONG hit rate is 0.43 (n=12). below a coin flip.Median LONG return is -141.3 bps.

read this first — not a buy signal

Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.

Decomposes ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth — strategy verdict: marginal. Standalone walk-forward run of the same LightGBM 9-factor family on the jp-listed universe (~4,100 tickers); the referenced record's verdict applies to the jp-growth universe only.

Accuracy (median across grid)

metricmedianp25 – p75n
Hit rate · LONG0.42990.2754 – 0.597312
Hit rate · SHORT0.39700.3685 – 0.442512
Avg return · LONG (bps)-141.3-254.3 – 8.230012
Avg return · SHORT (bps)-354.0-507.8 – -294.612
Selection rate · LONG0.01270.0085 – 0.014612
Selection rate · SHORT0.01430.0118 – 0.016712

Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps per trade (1 bps = 0.01%). Metrics with n = 0 are omitted.

PnL contribution

long
-54.1
short
-172.2
total
-226.3

Selected LONG 3742 / SHORT 4405 times out of 310,464 appearances (1.205% LONG).

sum of per-trade decimal returns across all grid combos and retrain periods (0.01 = one trade returning 1%)

/ai/stocks/276A.T.md/v1/stocks/276A.T
Research, not investment advice. Metrics describe model–stock fit, not the stock's merit.