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リガク・ホールディングス (268A.T) quant model fit

268A.T·電機・精密·jp-listed
computed asof 2026-10-01T02:33:09

Median hit rate and return when a model selected リガク・ホールディングス (268A.T). Model: ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth. Model–stock fit, not a buy signal.

Median LONG hit rate is 0.50 (n=12). near a coin flip.Median LONG return is +10.2 bps.

read this first — not a buy signal

Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.

Decomposes ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth — strategy verdict: marginal. Standalone walk-forward run of the same LightGBM 9-factor family on the jp-listed universe (~4,100 tickers); the referenced record's verdict applies to the jp-growth universe only.

Accuracy (median across grid)

metricmedianp25 – p75n
Hit rate · LONG0.49840.4112 – 0.530612
Hit rate · SHORT0.40580.3726 – 0.471412
Avg return · LONG (bps)10.2-3.3154 – 57.012
Avg return · SHORT (bps)-65.6-135.5 – 53.312
Selection rate · LONG0.00660.0050 – 0.007612
Selection rate · SHORT0.00390.0022 – 0.005012

Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps per trade (1 bps = 0.01%). Metrics with n = 0 are omitted.

PnL contribution

long
1.8488
short
-6.0739
total
-4.2251

Selected LONG 2108 / SHORT 1227 times out of 328,128 appearances (0.642% LONG).

sum of per-trade decimal returns across all grid combos and retrain periods (0.01 = one trade returning 1%)

/ai/stocks/268A.T.md/v1/stocks/268A.T
Research, not investment advice. Metrics describe model–stock fit, not the stock's merit.