per-stock model-accuracy decomposition

2656.T

computed asof 2026-08-07T09:15:52

read this first — not a buy signal

Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.

Decomposes ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth. Standalone walk-forward run of the same LightGBM 9-factor family on the jp-listed universe (~4,100 tickers); the referenced record's verdict applies to the jp-growth universe only.

Accuracy (median across grid)

metric	median	p25 – p75	n
Hit rate · LONG	0.3959	0.3293 – 0.4273	12
Hit rate · SHORT	0.6169	0.5890 – 0.6599	12
Avg return · LONG (bps)	-56.4	-147.1 – -37.9	12
Avg return · SHORT (bps)	194.8	29.1 – 263.3	12
Selection rate · LONG	0.0172	0.0148 – 0.0183	12
Selection rate · SHORT	0.0194	0.0175 – 0.0218	12

Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps per trade (1 bps = 0.01%).

PnL contribution

long

-54.8

short

107.8

total

53.0

appearances 375552 · LONG 6294 · SHORT 7320

Research, not investment advice. Metrics describe model–stock fit, not the stock's merit.