per-stock model-accuracy decomposition

2488.T

computed asof 2026-08-07T09:15:52

read this first — not a buy signal

Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.

Decomposes ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth. Standalone walk-forward run of the same LightGBM 9-factor family on the jp-listed universe (~4,100 tickers); the referenced record's verdict applies to the jp-growth universe only.

Accuracy (median across grid)

metric	median	p25 – p75	n
Hit rate · LONG	0.4055	0.3505 – 0.4493	12
Hit rate · SHORT	0.5566	0.4138 – 0.8701	12
Avg return · LONG (bps)	-100.9	-163.7 – -40.5	12
Avg return · SHORT (bps)	41.9	-526.3 – 169.2	12
Selection rate · LONG	0.0046	0.0033 – 0.0055	12
Selection rate · SHORT	0.0016	0.0007 – 0.0026	12

Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps per trade (1 bps = 0.01%).

PnL contribution

long

-15.7

short

-10.8

total

-26.5

appearances 382464 · LONG 1684 · SHORT 635

Research, not investment advice. Metrics describe model–stock fit, not the stock's merit.