per-stock model-accuracy decomposition

2164.T

computed asof 2026-08-07T09:15:52

read this first — not a buy signal

Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.

Decomposes ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth. Standalone walk-forward run of the same LightGBM 9-factor family on the jp-listed universe (~4,100 tickers); the referenced record's verdict applies to the jp-growth universe only.

Accuracy (median across grid)

metric	median	p25 – p75	n
Hit rate · LONG	0.5203	0.4914 – 0.5609	12
Hit rate · SHORT	0.7050	0.6486 – 0.7369	12
Avg return · LONG (bps)	241.4	207.4 – 263.5	12
Avg return · SHORT (bps)	290.1	246.3 – 347.5	12
Selection rate · LONG	0.0273	0.0245 – 0.0336	12
Selection rate · SHORT	0.0259	0.0224 – 0.0301	12

Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps per trade (1 bps = 0.01%).

PnL contribution

long

133.3

short

155.6

total

288.9

appearances 195840 · LONG 5689 · SHORT 5181

Research, not investment advice. Metrics describe model–stock fit, not the stock's merit.