日本国土開発 (1887.T) quant model fit
Median hit rate and return when a model selected 日本国土開発 (1887.T). Model: ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth. Model–stock fit, not a buy signal.
Median LONG hit rate is 0.52 (n=11). near a coin flip.Median LONG return is -16.9 bps.
Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.
Accuracy (median across grid)
| metric | median | p25 – p75 | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rate · LONG | 0.5238 | 0.5000 – 0.6307 | 11 |
| Hit rate · SHORTthin n | 1 | 1 – 1 | 1 |
| Avg return · LONG (bps) | -16.9 | -43.1 – 19.5 | 11 |
| Avg return · SHORT (bps)thin n | 26.9 | 26.9 – 26.9 | 1 |
| Selection rate · LONG | 0.0002 | 0 – 0.0002 | 12 |
| Selection rate · SHORT | 0 | 0 – 0 | 12 |
Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps per trade (1 bps = 0.01%). Metrics with n = 0 are omitted. Rows marked thin n have fewer than 5 observations — do not over-read them.
PnL contribution
Selected LONG 126 / SHORT 2 times out of 870,912 appearances (0.014% LONG).
sum of per-trade decimal returns across all grid combos and retrain periods (0.01 = one trade returning 1%)