per-stock model-accuracy decomposition

1850.T

computed asof 2026-08-07T09:15:52

read this first — not a buy signal

Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.

Decomposes ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth. Standalone walk-forward run of the same LightGBM 9-factor family on the jp-listed universe (~4,100 tickers); the referenced record's verdict applies to the jp-growth universe only.

Accuracy (median across grid)

metric	median	p25 – p75	n
Hit rate · LONG	0.8603	0.7153 – 0.9368	12
Hit rate · SHORT	0.5485	0.3333 – 0.7649	12
Avg return · LONG (bps)	145.7	75.1 – 204.3	12
Avg return · SHORT (bps)	198.0	-255.2 – 757.7	12
Selection rate · LONG	0.0062	0.0054 – 0.0078	12
Selection rate · SHORT	0.0064	0.0047 – 0.0080	12

Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps per trade (1 bps = 0.01%).

PnL contribution

long

10.5

short

33.8

total

44.2

appearances 120576 · LONG 775 · SHORT 787

Research, not investment advice. Metrics describe model–stock fit, not the stock's merit.