{"schema_version":"v1","slug":"portfolio-best-components-jp-growth","name":"Best Component Portfolio (JP Growth Stocks)","name_i18n":{},"verdict":"rejected","asset_class":"equity","categories":["multi-strategy","portfolio-synthesis","regime-switching"],"hypothesis":"A multi-strategy portfolio composed of Phase 2c/2d best variants (ml-factor best version + FLAT-only reversal + fx-carry + pair-trading) achieves higher regime stability than any single component. Phase 2b showed regime-conditional weighting improved UP-regime Sharpe from -1.11 to 0.36.","rejection_reason":{"primary":"no_edge","secondary":[],"narrative":"Across 3 grid combinations, median Sharpe=1.43, best=1.63. Primary failure mode: no_edge."},"target_universe":{"description":"Tokyo Stock Exchange Growth Market, ~495 stocks, tv >= 30M JPY","symbols":[]},"performance_summary":{"sharpe_median":1.4316,"max_drawdown_pct":-6.5,"win_rate":null,"alpha_annualized_pct":null,"p_value":0.13,"backtest_period":{"start":"2024-07-01","end":"2025-06-30"}},"grid_summary":{"sharpe":{"p25":0.72,"p75":1.53,"best":1.63,"worst":0,"median":1.43},"n_combinations":3},"methodology":{"notes":"{\"validation\": \"walk-forward (3 folds)\", \"walk_forward_definition\": {\"type\": \"single_pass\", \"description\": \"Full period backtest without walk-forward split\", \"verdict_basis\": \"full_period\"}}","signal":null,"benchmark":null,"rebalance":null,"slippage_model":"open-on-open + variable bps fixed","position_sizing":"method-dependent (equal_weight / risk_parity / regime_conditional)","regime_definition":"N225 SMA20/SMA60 three-class","transaction_cost_bps":5},"provenance":{"data_source":"kabu STATION REST API + J-Quants daily bars","source_project":"qbuntu-analysis","computed_asof":"2026-09-24T02:22:16","git_sha_z":"1455e77","git_sha_genkidama":"17a7674","python_version":"3.12.10","numpy_version":"2.4.2","pandas_version":"3.0.0","tier":"shallow"},"runs":[{"run_id":"r-portfolio-best-components-jp-growth-0001","name":"method=equal_weight","params":{"method":"equal_weight"},"performance":{"sharpe":1.43,"max_drawdown_pct":-6.5,"alpha_annualized_pct":16.7,"p_value":0.15,"regime_breakdown":{"UP":0.487651,"DOWN":2.441406,"FLAT":1.707956}},"executed_at":"2026-09-23T20:14:37","notes":null},{"run_id":"r-portfolio-best-components-jp-growth-0004","name":"method=risk_parity","params":{"method":"risk_parity"},"performance":{"sharpe":0,"max_drawdown_pct":0,"alpha_annualized_pct":0,"p_value":null,"regime_breakdown":{}},"executed_at":"2026-09-23T20:14:37","notes":null},{"run_id":"r-portfolio-best-components-jp-growth-0007","name":"method=regime_conditional","params":{"method":"regime_conditional"},"performance":{"sharpe":1.63,"max_drawdown_pct":-9.1,"alpha_annualized_pct":24,"p_value":0.11,"regime_breakdown":{"UP":0.565384,"DOWN":2.848641,"FLAT":1.518203}},"executed_at":"2026-09-23T20:14:37","notes":null}],"facts":[{"fact_id":"portfolio-best-components-jp-growth-fact-best-sharpe","strategy_slug":"portfolio-best-components-jp-growth","claim":"Best grid Sharpe ratio is 1.63 (p=0.11).","value":1.63,"value_text":null,"unit":"sharpe_ratio","context":"period 2024-07-01–2025-06-30; 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