{"schema_version":"v1","type":"per_stock_model_accuracy","ticker":"4176.T","universe":"jp-listed","name":"ココナラ","sector":"情報通信・サービスその他","computed_asof":"2026-10-01T02:33:09","frame":"Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.","source_strategy":{"note":"Standalone walk-forward run of the same LightGBM 9-factor family on the jp-listed universe (~4,100 tickers); the referenced record's verdict applies to the jp-growth universe only.","slug":"ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth","verdict":"marginal","relation":"model_family"},"source_strategy_exists":true,"units":{"pnl_cumul_*":"sum of per-trade decimal returns across all grid combos and retrain periods (0.01 = one trade returning 1%)","hit_rate_long":"ratio [0, 1] -- fraction of LONG selections with positive net return","hit_rate_short":"ratio [0, 1] -- fraction of SHORT selections with positive net return","avg_return_long_bps":"basis points per trade (1 bps = 0.01%) -- average net return when selected LONG","selection_rate_long":"ratio [0, 1] -- fraction of appearances where selected LONG","avg_return_short_bps":"basis points per trade (1 bps = 0.01%) -- average net return when selected SHORT","selection_rate_short":"ratio [0, 1] -- fraction of appearances where selected SHORT"},"accuracy_summary":{"hit_rate_long":{"n":12,"p25":0.4663,"p75":0.575,"median":0.5364},"hit_rate_short":{"n":12,"p25":0.4445,"p75":0.505,"median":0.4835},"avg_return_long_bps":{"n":12,"p25":-70.7838,"p75":53.371,"median":-14.2146},"selection_rate_long":{"n":12,"p25":0.0035,"p75":0.0047,"median":0.0041},"avg_return_short_bps":{"n":12,"p25":-160.8469,"p75":-95.8372,"median":-117.3856},"selection_rate_short":{"n":12,"p25":0.0059,"p75":0.0079,"median":0.0065}},"selection_counts":{"n_long_total":3664,"n_short_total":5705,"n_appearances_total":863232},"pnl_contribution":{"long":-3.8485,"short":-71.9536,"total":-75.8021},"_links":{"self":"https://qbuntu.ai/v1/stocks/4176.T","html":"https://qbuntu.ai/stocks/4176.T","markdown":"https://qbuntu.ai/ai/stocks/4176.T.md"},"license":"CC-BY-4.0"}