{"schema_version":"v1","type":"per_stock_model_accuracy","ticker":"3653.T","universe":"jp-listed","name":"モルフォ","sector":"情報通信・サービスその他","computed_asof":"2026-10-01T02:33:09","frame":"Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.","source_strategy":{"note":"Standalone walk-forward run of the same LightGBM 9-factor family on the jp-listed universe (~4,100 tickers); the referenced record's verdict applies to the jp-growth universe only.","slug":"ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth","verdict":"marginal","relation":"model_family"},"source_strategy_exists":true,"units":{"pnl_cumul_*":"sum of per-trade decimal returns across all grid combos and retrain periods (0.01 = one trade returning 1%)","hit_rate_long":"ratio [0, 1] -- fraction of LONG selections with positive net return","hit_rate_short":"ratio [0, 1] -- fraction of SHORT selections with positive net return","avg_return_long_bps":"basis points per trade (1 bps = 0.01%) -- average net return when selected LONG","selection_rate_long":"ratio [0, 1] -- fraction of appearances where selected LONG","avg_return_short_bps":"basis points per trade (1 bps = 0.01%) -- average net return when selected SHORT","selection_rate_short":"ratio [0, 1] -- fraction of appearances where selected SHORT"},"accuracy_summary":{"hit_rate_long":{"n":12,"p25":0.4244,"p75":0.5609,"median":0.5053},"hit_rate_short":{"n":12,"p25":0.4489,"p75":0.6019,"median":0.5158},"avg_return_long_bps":{"n":12,"p25":-157.3076,"p75":-41.4804,"median":-77.3298},"selection_rate_long":{"n":12,"p25":0.0035,"p75":0.0054,"median":0.0042},"avg_return_short_bps":{"n":12,"p25":190.7316,"p75":329.5712,"median":248.4472},"selection_rate_short":{"n":12,"p25":0.0067,"p75":0.0085,"median":0.0075}},"selection_counts":{"n_long_total":1829,"n_short_total":3013,"n_appearances_total":397056},"pnl_contribution":{"long":-21.9975,"short":78.4305,"total":56.433},"_links":{"self":"https://qbuntu.ai/v1/stocks/3653.T","html":"https://qbuntu.ai/stocks/3653.T","markdown":"https://qbuntu.ai/ai/stocks/3653.T.md"},"license":"CC-BY-4.0"}