per-stock model-accuracy decomposition

9812.T

computed asof 2026-08-07T09:15:52

read this first — not a buy signal

Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.

Decomposes ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth. Standalone walk-forward run of the same LightGBM 9-factor family on the jp-listed universe (~4,100 tickers); the referenced record's verdict applies to the jp-growth universe only.

Accuracy (median across grid)

metric	median	p25 – p75	n
Hit rate · LONG	0.2868	0.2689 – 0.3192	12
Hit rate · SHORT	0.5640	0.5388 – 0.5766	12
Avg return · LONG (bps)	-50.0	-137.9 – -6.2532	12
Avg return · SHORT (bps)	-8.7221	-58.3 – 30.0	12
Selection rate · LONG	0.0190	0.0163 – 0.0209	12
Selection rate · SHORT	0.0600	0.0520 – 0.0695	12

Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps per trade (1 bps = 0.01%).

PnL contribution

long

-20.5

short

-10.6

total

-31.2

appearances 201984 · LONG 3731 · SHORT 11905

Research, not investment advice. Metrics describe model–stock fit, not the stock's merit.