per-stock model-accuracy decomposition

9625.T

computed asof 2026-08-07T09:15:52

read this first — not a buy signal

Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.

Decomposes ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth. Standalone walk-forward run of the same LightGBM 9-factor family on the jp-listed universe (~4,100 tickers); the referenced record's verdict applies to the jp-growth universe only.

Accuracy (median across grid)

metric	median	p25 – p75	n
Hit rate · LONG	0.5895	0.4094 – 0.8584	12
Hit rate · SHORT	0.6050	0.3157 – 0.9118	12
Avg return · LONG (bps)	63.9	-41.4 – 74.3	12
Avg return · SHORT (bps)	350.9	154.9 – 591.8	12
Selection rate · LONG	0.0018	0.0014 – 0.0021	12
Selection rate · SHORT	0.0009	0.0005 – 0.0024	12

Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps per trade (1 bps = 0.01%).

PnL contribution

long

0.6116

short

8.2398

total

8.8515

appearances 168192 · LONG 343 · SHORT 340

Research, not investment advice. Metrics describe model–stock fit, not the stock's merit.