per-stock model-accuracy decomposition

9561.T

computed asof 2026-08-07T09:15:52

read this first — not a buy signal

Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.

Decomposes ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth. Standalone walk-forward run of the same LightGBM 9-factor family on the jp-listed universe (~4,100 tickers); the referenced record's verdict applies to the jp-growth universe only.

Accuracy (median across grid)

metric	median	p25 – p75	n
Hit rate · LONG	0.4714	0.4220 – 0.5413	12
Hit rate · SHORT	0.5123	0.4367 – 0.5984	12
Avg return · LONG (bps)	33.4	3.4126 – 76.2	12
Avg return · SHORT (bps)	144.9	1.4805 – 182.8	12
Selection rate · LONG	0.0113	0.0091 – 0.0134	12
Selection rate · SHORT	0.0055	0.0046 – 0.0082	12

Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps per trade (1 bps = 0.01%).

PnL contribution

long

18.4

short

20.2

total

38.6

appearances 357312 · LONG 3987 · SHORT 2274

Research, not investment advice. Metrics describe model–stock fit, not the stock's merit.