per-stock model-accuracy decomposition

9326.T

computed asof 2026-08-07T09:15:52

read this first — not a buy signal

Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.

Decomposes ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth. Standalone walk-forward run of the same LightGBM 9-factor family on the jp-listed universe (~4,100 tickers); the referenced record's verdict applies to the jp-growth universe only.

Accuracy (median across grid)

metric	median	p25 – p75	n
Hit rate · LONG	0.4374	0.3878 – 0.4715	12
Hit rate · SHORT	0.7933	0.6658 – 0.9201	12
Avg return · LONG (bps)	-77.9	-117 – -19.2	12
Avg return · SHORT (bps)	339.0	-45.4 – 521.2	12
Selection rate · LONG	0.0051	0.0044 – 0.0055	12
Selection rate · SHORT	0.0082	0.0065 – 0.0104	12

Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps per trade (1 bps = 0.01%).

PnL contribution

long

-7.4605

short

45.9

total

38.4

appearances 261888 · LONG 1250 · SHORT 2169

Research, not investment advice. Metrics describe model–stock fit, not the stock's merit.