per-stock model-accuracy decomposition

9225.T

computed asof 2026-08-07T09:15:52

read this first — not a buy signal

Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.

Decomposes ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth. Standalone walk-forward run of the same LightGBM 9-factor family on the jp-listed universe (~4,100 tickers); the referenced record's verdict applies to the jp-growth universe only.

Accuracy (median across grid)

metric	median	p25 – p75	n
Hit rate · LONG	0.5004	0.4458 – 0.5276	12
Hit rate · SHORT	0.5376	0.5048 – 0.5903	12
Avg return · LONG (bps)	-99.5	-132.0 – -65.4	12
Avg return · SHORT (bps)	98.9	64.7 – 222.1	12
Selection rate · LONG	0.0641	0.0418 – 0.0737	12
Selection rate · SHORT	0.1146	0.1041 – 0.1264	12

Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps per trade (1 bps = 0.01%).

PnL contribution

long

-21.9

short

60.8

total

38.9

appearances 41472 · LONG 2500 · SHORT 4830

Research, not investment advice. Metrics describe model–stock fit, not the stock's merit.