per-stock model-accuracy decomposition

9130.T

computed asof 2026-08-07T09:15:52

read this first — not a buy signal

Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.

Decomposes ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth. Standalone walk-forward run of the same LightGBM 9-factor family on the jp-listed universe (~4,100 tickers); the referenced record's verdict applies to the jp-growth universe only.

Accuracy (median across grid)

metric	median	p25 – p75	n
Hit rate · LONG	0.2722	0.2251 – 0.3537	12
Hit rate · SHORT	0.0376	0.0158 – 0.1940	12
Avg return · LONG (bps)	-69.8	-118.4 – -35.7	12
Avg return · SHORT (bps)	-589.7	-616.2 – -324.8	12
Selection rate · LONG	0.0029	0.0026 – 0.0034	12
Selection rate · SHORT	0.0070	0.0061 – 0.0072	12

Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps per trade (1 bps = 0.01%).

PnL contribution

long

-8.0719

short

-100.2

total

-108.3

appearances 289536 · LONG 851 · SHORT 2005

Research, not investment advice. Metrics describe model–stock fit, not the stock's merit.