per-stock model-accuracy decomposition

8938.T

computed asof 2026-08-07T09:15:52

read this first — not a buy signal

Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.

Decomposes ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth. Standalone walk-forward run of the same LightGBM 9-factor family on the jp-listed universe (~4,100 tickers); the referenced record's verdict applies to the jp-growth universe only.

Accuracy (median across grid)

metric	median	p25 – p75	n
Hit rate · LONG	0.5072	0.4618 – 0.5760	12
Hit rate · SHORT	0.3886	0.3573 – 0.4158	12
Avg return · LONG (bps)	94.5	41.3 – 152.3	12
Avg return · SHORT (bps)	-107.4	-150.6 – -90.0	12
Selection rate · LONG	0.0149	0.0142 – 0.0171	12
Selection rate · SHORT	0.0125	0.0115 – 0.0143	12

Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps per trade (1 bps = 0.01%).

PnL contribution

long

54.4

short

-55.1

total

-0.6521

appearances 387840 · LONG 5941 · SHORT 4932

Research, not investment advice. Metrics describe model–stock fit, not the stock's merit.