per-stock model-accuracy decomposition

8836.T

computed asof 2026-08-07T09:15:52

read this first — not a buy signal

Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.

Decomposes ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth. Standalone walk-forward run of the same LightGBM 9-factor family on the jp-listed universe (~4,100 tickers); the referenced record's verdict applies to the jp-growth universe only.

Accuracy (median across grid)

metric	median	p25 – p75	n
Hit rate · LONG	0.2583	0.2209 – 0.2729	12
Hit rate · SHORT	0.5675	0.5285 – 0.6039	12
Avg return · LONG (bps)	-22.3	-58.6 – 8.4010	12
Avg return · SHORT (bps)	464.3	372.1 – 530.2	12
Selection rate · LONG	0.0432	0.0369 – 0.0509	12
Selection rate · SHORT	0.0219	0.0166 – 0.0239	12

Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps per trade (1 bps = 0.01%).

PnL contribution

long

-0.0201

short

119.2

total

119.1

appearances 126720 · LONG 5605 · SHORT 2560

Research, not investment advice. Metrics describe model–stock fit, not the stock's merit.