per-stock model-accuracy decomposition

8166.T

computed asof 2026-08-07T09:15:52

read this first — not a buy signal

Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.

Decomposes ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth. Standalone walk-forward run of the same LightGBM 9-factor family on the jp-listed universe (~4,100 tickers); the referenced record's verdict applies to the jp-growth universe only.

Accuracy (median across grid)

metric	median	p25 – p75	n
Hit rate · LONG	0.2098	0.1229 – 0.2411	12
Hit rate · SHORT	0.7744	0.7220 – 0.8176	12
Avg return · LONG (bps)	-197.2	-242.5 – -148.2	12
Avg return · SHORT (bps)	580.9	523.1 – 639.9	12
Selection rate · LONG	0.0190	0.0161 – 0.0234	12
Selection rate · SHORT	0.0125	0.0102 – 0.0163	12

Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps per trade (1 bps = 0.01%).

PnL contribution

long

-70.0

short

144.7

total

74.7

appearances 187392 · LONG 3618 · SHORT 2549

Research, not investment advice. Metrics describe model–stock fit, not the stock's merit.