per-stock model-accuracy decomposition

7727.T

computed asof 2026-08-07T09:15:52

read this first — not a buy signal

Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.

Decomposes ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth. Standalone walk-forward run of the same LightGBM 9-factor family on the jp-listed universe (~4,100 tickers); the referenced record's verdict applies to the jp-growth universe only.

Accuracy (median across grid)

metric	median	p25 – p75	n
Hit rate · LONG	0.2527	0.1889 – 0.3662	12
Hit rate · SHORT	0.7490	0.7123 – 0.7855	12
Avg return · LONG (bps)	-90.2	-191.9 – 5.2521	12
Avg return · SHORT (bps)	426.2	396.0 – 447.5	12
Selection rate · LONG	0.0024	0.0021 – 0.0028	12
Selection rate · SHORT	0.0055	0.0049 – 0.0057	12

Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps per trade (1 bps = 0.01%).

PnL contribution

long

-12.6

short

152.5

total

139.9

appearances 654336 · LONG 1593 · SHORT 3500

Research, not investment advice. Metrics describe model–stock fit, not the stock's merit.