per-stock model-accuracy decomposition

7138.T

computed asof 2026-08-07T09:15:52

read this first — not a buy signal

Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.

Decomposes ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth. Standalone walk-forward run of the same LightGBM 9-factor family on the jp-listed universe (~4,100 tickers); the referenced record's verdict applies to the jp-growth universe only.

Accuracy (median across grid)

metric	median	p25 – p75	n
Hit rate · LONG	0.2614	0.2151 – 0.2785	12
Hit rate · SHORT	0.5625	0.5515 – 0.5871	12
Avg return · LONG (bps)	-129.9	-188.4 – -105.7	12
Avg return · SHORT (bps)	127.5	81.9 – 153.4	12
Selection rate · LONG	0.0242	0.0218 – 0.0285	12
Selection rate · SHORT	0.0512	0.0490 – 0.0540	12

Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps per trade (1 bps = 0.01%).

PnL contribution

long

-125.0

short

227.1

total

102.1

appearances 370176 · LONG 9734 · SHORT 19175

Research, not investment advice. Metrics describe model–stock fit, not the stock's merit.