per-stock model-accuracy decomposition

7073.T

computed asof 2026-08-07T09:15:52

read this first — not a buy signal

Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.

Decomposes ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth. Standalone walk-forward run of the same LightGBM 9-factor family on the jp-listed universe (~4,100 tickers); the referenced record's verdict applies to the jp-growth universe only.

Accuracy (median across grid)

metric	median	p25 – p75	n
Hit rate · LONG	0.2241	0.1958 – 0.2976	12
Hit rate · SHORT	0.0753	0.0370 – 0.1409	12
Avg return · LONG (bps)	-194.0	-231.4 – -166.2	12
Avg return · SHORT (bps)	-619.6	-731.1 – -524.1	12
Selection rate · LONG	0.0514	0.0442 – 0.0616	12
Selection rate · SHORT	0.0818	0.0706 – 0.0915	12

Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps per trade (1 bps = 0.01%).

PnL contribution

long

-82.0

short

-376.4

total

-458.3

appearances 76800 · LONG 4071 · SHORT 6189

Research, not investment advice. Metrics describe model–stock fit, not the stock's merit.