per-stock model-accuracy decomposition

6659.T

computed asof 2026-08-07T09:15:52

read this first — not a buy signal

Model predictability decomposition: measures how accurately the ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth model family predicts this stock's returns within the jp-listed universe. High hit_rate_long does NOT mean 'good stock to buy' -- it means 'the model historically predicted this stock well when selecting it LONG'. This is a property of model-stock fit, not intrinsic stock quality.

Decomposes ml-factor-lgbm-9f-jp-growth. Standalone walk-forward run of the same LightGBM 9-factor family on the jp-listed universe (~4,100 tickers); the referenced record's verdict applies to the jp-growth universe only.

Accuracy (median across grid)

metric	median	p25 – p75	n
Hit rate · LONG	0.4495	0.4295 – 0.4930	12
Hit rate · SHORT	0.6176	0.5926 – 0.6360	12
Avg return · LONG (bps)	128.3	78.0 – 191.0	12
Avg return · SHORT (bps)	201.9	158.4 – 251.2	12
Selection rate · LONG	0.0202	0.0185 – 0.0235	12
Selection rate · SHORT	0.0349	0.0319 – 0.0371	12

Hit rate ≈ 0.5 means the model's picks on this stock were near coin-flip. Returns in bps per trade (1 bps = 0.01%).

PnL contribution

long

153.9

short

423.5

total

577.4

appearances 593664 · LONG 13771 · SHORT 20604

Research, not investment advice. Metrics describe model–stock fit, not the stock's merit.